Chris Forsberg over at FiveThirtyEight.com just came out with his season preview for the Celtics in 2015-2016. In traditional Nate Silver fashion, the 538 folks
use good old statistical analysis to predict that the Celts will finish up the season at 48-34, which would represent an 8 game win improvement over last year’s 40-42 record.
Forsberg uses a quantitative system ‘CARMELO’, which is essentially a confusing algorithm that predicts each players stat line for the upcoming year. Some details of the CARMELO system make sense but others such as height and weight, would seem to really ding guys like Isaiah Thomas, who checks in at a towering 5’9″.
Whatever the case CARMELO predicts that guys like Marcus Smart will contribute significantly to the Celts success next year–and even list Smart’s top comparison as James Harden. WOW…that’s interesting. I love Smart, but Harden? Really?
The key with the player comparisons according to Silver is that by comparing the each player’s playing time and overall value on offense and defense, he can come up with a relative similarity score, similar to work he did on similarity scores for Baseball Prospectus. I like statistical player comparisons and Silver is a smart guy, but not sure how effective this will be in determining the overall success of an NBA team. We shall find out soon enough.